A formula at left calculated the number of wins out of total picks. Row 3 contains the winner of each game, which I would post manually each week. Each week’s worth of data looks something like this: In August, I manually copied and pasted 20 season weekly pick data from NFL Pickwatch into a Google spreadsheet.
NFL Pickwatch has weekly expert predictions dating back to the 2014 season. The guys behind NFL Pickwatch, in their own words, “track, watch and stalk (figuratively) each NFL expert across every network and website”.
Most of the experts are NFL media analysts (hence their “expert” status), but NFL Pickwatch also tracks the Vegas line, ESPN user consensus, Microsoft’s artificial intelligence bot Cortana, and algorithms such as FiveThirtyEight’s Elo predictions. NFL Pickwatch tracks the picks and predictions by NFL “experts” each week over the course of the NFL season. I found just what I needed at NFL Pickwatch. If I was going to follow the coattails of the most reliable expert, I first needed data to tell me which of these so-called “experts” was actually consistently picking winners each week. The result? A system that turned thousands of expert predictions into office bragging rights. My logic, while fallible in theory, was successful in practice: past success among certain experts did guarantee me future performance. As they jockeyed and traded places as the top-ranked oracle, I switched my allegiance accordingly. My broad thesis was this: each week, I would follow the advice of the expert with the best track record, using his or her pre-announced picks as my own for the next week.Īs these experts proved their proficiency at picking winners, I followed their coattails to success. How did I do it? I created a system that used data from over 200 “experts” and a variation of Reddit’s comment ranking algorithm to methodically generate a winning edge over my colleagues. New England’s unbelievable Super Bowl win yesterday over Atlanta placed me 1st out of 19 colleagues with a record of 172 of 265 correct picks. This year, I figured that if I employed a consistent strategy, I might actually win. Last year (2015–2016 NFL season), without any coherent strategy, I started 18th of 24 and fought my way up to being tied in 4th by the end of the season. I find a disproportionate amount of joy in participating in my office’s NFL pick’em pool each year. The spreadsheet that won me my NFL pick’em office pool:
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